Interview with american political scientist Stephen Ebert for ArmLur.am.
-Mr. Ebert, in your opinion, why did the hostilities on the Karabakh-Azerbaijani line of contact resume now?
-It seems to me the situation there has always been ready for this. And given the current disarray due to Covid, the US changing role in the world due to Trump, and Turkey’s willingness to openly enter into the conflict while the world is “busy” with other things offered Azerbaijan the chance to proceed.
-What is USA’s role in this situation? Will US intervene or remain neutral or go further? And what you can say about Russia opinion now.
-As for the US, the only “interest” we have is to have things be “difficult” for Russia all around its borders…whether Ukraine, Byelorussia, this, or Kirghizia, we either fund, sponsor, encourage, or otherwise support. With the Trump regime in power, however, the main foreign interests at this moment are things that directly benefit the Trump “clan” and/or help him get elected. I do not currently see much in either area that will be of interest to him at this point, so beyond the usual call for ceasing hostilities, no further actions. As for Russia, it appears to me that while Russia seems to have more common interests with Armenia (ODKB for example), Russia has taken a very fair-handed approach, and clearly was more effective in at least starting to bring the sides together. The election of an “opposition”, pro-Western leader in Armenia likely has limited Russia’s “passion” for getting more directly involved on Armenia’s side. But Pashinyan clearly is willing to now accept any help he can get from Russia…or anyone from the “Western” or “Christian” world.
-Can the European Union play a role on behalf of France and Germany?
-I do not see the EU playing a large role here on behalf of France or Germany, rather the opposite. That is, again, the EU is quite busy with Covid and other issues, while both France and Germany seem to be willing to engage at least more in terms of diplomacy. Europe does, however, have a vested interest in keeping Turkey from expanding its sphere of influence. But, to the degree this would entail “agreeing with Putin” or Russia (which has been very clear in achieving this goal), they might now act so aggressively so as to strengthen Russia’s hand. Note also there is of course a huge, and hugely influential diaspora of Armenians in the US, especially on the West Coast, in and around Los Angeles. And just the other day, some 10-20,000 were said to have gathered for a march to gather support for ending conflict. But, as a whole, the American public, knows nothing about this area, and is not likely given all the current chaos (Covid, Trump, elections, etc) to “demand” any actions. Note – that is NOT to say our media has not covered this…and oddly, for once, the coverage has been fairly objective, recognizing the long-standing issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, and avoiding so far a lot of temptation to make this about Russia and Putin. Again, for now!
-In that case what are your predictions for resolving this situation?
-Sadly, I only see a chance to extend the ceasefire such as it is, and return to the “stalemate” status quo. Clearly, Nagorno-Karabakh is never going to “relinquish” is claims to and status as an “independent” area (in whatever form), nor is Armenia likely to abandon them. From at least the Ukraine, we all see the tragic results of what happens when one ethnic/cultural group is allowed to be swallowed up by another – despite the silly concept of being “brothers”.
-What is the role of Turkey here, what about mercenaries? How dangerous is the transfer of mercenaries from Syria to the Caucasus?
-As for Turkey, it must be stopped by the international community from supporting and fanning the flames for war and violence from the Azerbaijani side. This will take a concerted effort – pressure – from the EU, the US and Russia. While the numbers of Syrian fighters there may not be that large so as to greatly influence the outcome, the mere fact that they may have been “injected” into the fray by Turkey will only raise passions and tensions between the “West” and Russia (“Christian” countries) and the Muslim Mideast. And as we know, there are already more than enough tensions in this area…with problems in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and the Saudis and UAR (with the assistance and blessing of the US) outwardly funding ongoing Sunni-based Islamic terrorists.
-The Armenian authorities call on foreign states to recognize the independence of Karabakh and the right to self-determination. It’s real now?
-As for recognition, given it has not been done in some 30 years, it does not appear to be a realistic situation. But, note, one temporary solution might well be peacekeepers, and likely from major players like the EU and Russia… As you know, with regard to the US at least, we are only favor of such self-determination when it is in our favor. Look at the Ukraine, Crimea, the breakaway LPR and DPR, Abkhazia, etc. It is telling that the US and the EU were all in favor of the ongoing splintering of the old Yugoslavia (supporting such self-determination), only to turn around and swallow up all the former republics into the EU.
-How long do you think the war will last? Is this a long war?
– I fear this will go on a long time…with the “war” from time to time being tamped won by various ceasefires. I see another 30 year period at least of while certainly not outright war, then certainly a very hostile standoff.
Author -Naira Hovhannisyan
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